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Where the binomial distribution tells us the probability of getting a specific number of successes with replacement (i.e., equivalent with shuffling your deck, revealing the top card, noting whether its a land or not, then shuffling again and repeating), the hypergeometric distribution takes into account that card draws are, in fact, not independent (i.e., telling us the probability of getting a specific number of successes without replacement, where cards arent reinserted into the deck after being counted as a success or not)

We can pick a strategy and go in on it, discarding pieces to other strategies and keeping things which work for us

The majority of the creatures in this deck deal small pings of damage consistently through either activated or triggered abilities

So why run it over Fog